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| Photo: The White House |
A New Era
in the Middle East?
December, 2024
Prime minister Netanyahu faces, after the election of Trump, the opportunity to turn the military successes into political achievements, in a way that will allow Israel the ability to end the war in Gaza, bring all the 101 hostages and shape an improved security-political reality in the Middle East.
10 key recommendations
- Forming an outline for the return of the 101 hostages as a paramount political, security, and moral obligation. This should be the most immediate and urgent overarching goal.
- Strengthening national resilience as a critical condition to Israel’s overall power, first and foremost by means of removing the threats made against the heads of the law enforcement system, and putting an end to all rebuke directed toward them, while promoting equal shouldering of the burden, and implementing the supreme court’s ruling on the drafting of the ultra-Orthodox into the IDF.
- Forming an updated strategy by which to contain and weaken the Iranian threat. First and foremost, negating its nuclear capabilities, and continuing to weaken the ring of fire. At the same time, the destabilization of the Ayatollah regime should be examined as a defined objective.
- Realizing that Trump as the new U.S. President marks the beginning of a new era. It is clearly in Israel’s best interest to keep bolstering the strategic multidimensional collaborations with the United States. This would require addressing powder-keg issues, primarily the regional strategic axis, and the Palestinian price associated with it.
- Enforcing the ceasefire in Lebanon to ensure that Hezbollah does not rearm or deploy its forces south of the Litani, while providing maximum assistance to the population of the north so that they can return to their homes safely.
- Toppling Hamas rule in Gaza by comprehensive political means in collaboration with the United States, Arab states, and Palestinian Authority affiliates to enable a governing alternative.
- Curbing direct annexation trends in the West Bank, while continuing to thwart attacks, and strengthening the Palestinian Authority to prevent its collapse.
- Making a special effort to strengthen the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, which serves as the State of Israel’s strategic depth, while taking steps to preserve and develop the strategic partnership with Egypt.
- Promoting a historical normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia that will enable Israel to deepen its strategic alliance with the Arab states against the Iranian axis, and get back on the track of strategic multidimensional power.
- Reinstating the administrative detention orders against Jews in the West Bank as effective and nearly exclusive means of countering terror and espionage.
Military Accomplishments - An Opportunity for Political gains
In recent months, the IDF has made remarkable achievements on all war fronts. In Gaza, Hamas’ military frameworks have been disbanded, and, as a military organization, Hamas has been toppled. Grave blows have also been delivered to Hizballah’s command and control chain, and detriment caused to its firing capabilities at Israel. Vis-à-vis Iran, Israel has successfully destroyed a considerable part of the Islamic Republic’s air defense capabilities, caused detriment to its missile production capabilities and, according to Prime Minister Netanyahu, has even harmed a component associated with Iran’s military nuclear program. In the West Bank, the IDF and ISA continue to vigorously thwart murderous terror attacks, while targeting and detaining thousands of militants, the majority of whom have been linked to Hamas. All the while, the U.S. administration continues to provide broad support in preparation for Trump’s second term as U.S. President, due to commence on 20 January, 2025.
For this very reason, Prime Minister Netanyahu is currently facing an opportunity to translate the IDF’s military achievements to political gains in a way that would provide Israel with the ability to end the war, and shape an improved state security reality. If he will fail to seize it, these accomplishments could be eroded gradually, deepening Israel’s strategic, security, and economic difficulties.
The Threat Posed by Iran - Curbing the Nuclear Program
The Iron Swords War has proven that Iran, and its extreme ideology calling for Israel’s annihilation, poses the key threat to the latter’s security. This conclusion is based on two main components: the development of a military nuclear program and Iran’s current positioning as a nuclear threshold state; as well as its establishment and activation of a ring of fire around Israel.
Throughout the war, Israel has successfully caused significant detriment to two main components of the ring of fire - Hizballah and Hamas. Thus, it now has the option of making a special effort, and focusing on curbing the Iranian military nuclear program. This threat is more tangible than ever, as Israel is concerned that the development of weapons-grade nuclear will serve as Iran’s insurance policy following the severe blow suffered by Hizballah. Moreover, nuclear weapons in Iranian hands could boost the Islamic Republic’s confidence, and that of its proxies across the Middle East, prompting them to exhibit increased boldness to take conventional action against Israel under a nuclear umbrella. In addition, nuclear arms obviously pose a direct threat to Israel, even if the chances of using them seem slim. Finally, once Iran obtains nuclear weapons, a nuclear arms race could begin across the Middle East, as it is highly likely that Egypt, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia will also strive to attain such capabilities.
Under the current circumstances, Israel has an opportunity to take joint action alongside the incoming U.S. administration to curb the nuclear program by building two alternatives. The first, a reliable military option involving a deep collaboration with the Trump administration, which has already undertaken to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. The second alternative would be a JCPOA 2.0 – an agreement with teeth and stringent oversight. To do so, Israel must ensure that it will play a part in the negotiations between the various parties from the very beginning, and that, while negotiations will be underway, the U.S. administration will impose painful sanctions on Iran that would cause substantial harm to its economy, and illustrate what it stands to lose. For the mid to long term, seeing as the extreme ideology of the murderous regime in Tehran is not expected to change, Israel should promote a plan to topple the current regime, or, at the very least, destabilize it. Doing so could harness Iranian society’s economic distresses and structural weaknesses in a coordinated effort with Israel’s allies on both regional and international levels.
Enforcing the ceasefire in Lebanon
As mentioned, Israel has significantly impeded Hizballah’s capabilities in the north. According to outgoing Israeli Minister of Defense Gallant, Israel’s actions have impacted about 80% of Hizballah’s firing capabilities, and it seems that in recent weeks, the scope of the operations has deepened further. The ceasefire agreement reached in Lebanon creates an opportunity for Israel to change the security situation in the north, in a way that may allow the citizens to return to their homes. A necessary condition for this is that Israel will enforce the agreement to prevent Hizbullah from rearming and redeploying its forces south of the Litani.
Toppling Hamas Rule
The most urgent and immediate overarching goal must be the return of all 101 hostages, for time is running out for them, as stated by Professor Hagai Levine in his medical report on their health after spending more than a year in Hamas captivity, and in view of the harsh winter months ahead. Thus, Israel should strive to form a new, immediate roadmap for their return, while creating the conditions for the toppling of Hamas rule, and the establishment of an alternative Palestinian regime that would be affiliated in one way or another with the Palestinian Authority, as it is the only organization currently legitimized both regionally and internationally. Such a reality would allow the Arab states and international community to take part in the Gaza rehabilitation process, estimated to cost dozens of millions of Dollars.
Under every scenario, Israel must avoid directly ruling over 2 million Gazans. Such a development would pose a genuine risk, creating heavy long-term burden that the IDF will be forced to shoulder, while also having broad negative consequences for the Israeli economy, and for Israel’s status both regionally and globally.
Israeli Minister of Finance Smotrich’s statements whereby 2025 will be the year of sovereignty in the West Bank (Judea & Samaria) reflect his ideological view whereby the Palestinian Authority should be dismantled, and Israeli sovereignty imposed. This policy harbors grave dangers of destabilization in an already explosive situation. It could also be detrimental to Israel’s relations with the Arab world, especially Jordan. The Israeli government should, therefore, foster a policy that would strengthen the Palestinian Authority, including allowing workers to work in Israel, subject to security procedures.
The ICC arrest warrants - A strategic threat
The International Criminal Court’s despicable decision to issue arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and former Minister of Defense, Yoav Gallant, is particularly shocking, and equivalent to opening an eighth conflict front against the State of Israel. This development requires rapid conclusion-drawing and vigorous action if it is to be undone. Before all else, a decision must be made on the establishment of a state commission of inquiry - the only framework that would uncover the truth, while serving as effective means by which to counter the ICC’s attack.
An emergency halt of all steps leading to a governmental coup is simultaneously required, and the judiciary’s independence secured, including by way of appointing a permanent president to the supreme court. Alongside these efforts, steps must be taken to strengthen the support provided by the United States and Israel’s other allies worldwide.
Normalization with Saudi Arabia - A Window of Opportunity
Trump’s intention to achieve normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia opens up an unprecedented window of opportunity for Prime Minister Netanyahu to sign a peace agreement with the most important Arab Muslim country. It would allow Israel to reshape Middle-Eastern architecture, while significantly improving its strategic, security, and economic condition. Nevertheless, if Prime Minister Netanyahu will persevere in his refusal to integrate the Palestinian Authority into the Gaza rehabilitation process, and publicly outline the prospects of a Palestinian state, the Saudi Crown Prince and heir to the throne will not be willing or able to progress toward normalization.
Restoring National Resilience and Social Cohesion
The aggravating polarization and divides in Israeli society pose a key threat to the country’s national resilience. The Israeli government is therefore required, first and foremost, to comply with the supreme court ruling on enlisting the ultra-Orthodox, and promote relevant legislation. In addition, all steps associated with the governmental coup must be stopped, and an effort made to preserve the judicial system’s independence, and immediately cease all wild rebuke directed at the Attorney General and head of the ISA, which could potentially weaken these organizations’ ability to perform their duties responsibly, thereby causing detriment to Israel’s security. From the economic perspective, the Israeli government must pursue the allocation of budgetary resources according to national, rather than sectorial, needs. The state budget should go toward rehabilitating Israel’s north and south, as well as providing solutions to reservists’ distresses, among other crucial areas.
Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Executive Director: Maj. Gen. (res.) Prof. Amos Gilead
Editted by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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