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Ending the War in Gaza:

A New Era of Opportunities and Challenges?

November, 2025

Opportunities

The agreement releasing the hostages and ending the war is the product of IDF achievements vis-à-vis Hamas coupled with President Trump’s determination. It is a historic event that harbors the potential for driving strategic processes essential to Israel’s future.

Extraordinary opportunities are opening up for Israel. First and foremost - completing the process of returning all deceased hostages remaining in Gaza, and expanding the normalization agreements with the Arab states, primarily to Saudi Arabia, but perhaps also to Lebanon and Syria, as well as other key Muslim countries. These agreements could lead to a change in the Middle Eastern architecture, and serve as a political, economic, and security force multiplier as the region contends with the multidimensional threat posed by Iran. Ending the war opens the door to rebuilding Israel’s strategic relationships with Egypt and Jordan.

At the same time, all notions of expelling the Palestinian population from Gaza, resettling Jews there, and enforcing military regime in the Gaza Strip have been abandoned. These processes could also lead to establishing and deepening Israel’s special relations with the United States, rebuilding the former’s international status, and reducing the level of antisemitic hatred in the western world. All while causing significant detriment to Iran and the ring of fire it had built around Israel over the last three decades.

Risks and Challenges

Hamas remains loyal to its strategy to maintain its presence in Gaza, and is therefore dragging its heels as it returns the Israeli deceased hostages in an attempt to stretch the process out for as long as possible. Hamas does not seem to have any intention of agreeing to any plan that would uproot it from Gaza. The special status given to Turkey and Qatar in Gaza is actually giving Hamas tailwind, as the latter realizes that these two countries will actively save it due to their own ingrained ideological motivations. Support for this notion can be found in Saudi Arabia and the UAE’s growing reluctance to become involved in rebuilding Gaza as long as Hamas remains in the Gaza Strip, and Turkey and Qatar benefit from it. This could lead to a prolonged process with continued Hamas presence in Gaza, which could curb the possibility of advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia.

The issue of the Palestinian Authority is expected to become a priority on the global and regional agenda. Israel will soon need to contend with the need to resolve the two-state issue as a step toward a permanent solution, and a precondition to advancing normalization with Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region. The latter have already conditioned their involvement in rehabilitating Gaza, including their willingness to invest the dozens of millions of dollars required to do so, on giving the Palestinian Authority some status in Gaza, as evident from Abu Mazen’s participation in the international summit at Sharm El Sheikh. If Israel should ignore the Palestinian Authority’s standing, while continuing to pursue the latter’s destabilization as well as a unilateral change on the ground in Judea and Samaria, it could lead to further detriment to its status, as well as tension vis-à-vis the Trump Administration.

Iran has been hit hard over the last year as a result of the significant detriment caused to its abilities and the ring of fire it had built around Israel. However, as long as the current regime remains in power in Tehran, it will be determined to follow its ideological views of someday annihilating the State of Israel. Thus, Iran has prioritized the rebuilding of its offensive and defensive capabilities, as well as its repositioning, at the very least, as a nuclear threshold state, while standing its ground against President Trump’s dictated terms, particularly with regard to his demand for zero enrichment. Having said that, Iran will probably display caution, and refrain from any extreme measure or act of defiance, such as withdrawing from the non-proliferation treaty (NPT), so as not to provide Israel with an excuse to wage another war against it. Similarly, Hizballah is fostering the Iranian strategy, and gradually rebuilding its political standing in Lebanon as well as its military force, while being careful not to drag Israel into yet another campaign.

U.S.-Saudi defense agreement - The reports whereby the two countries will sign a defense agreement during the Saudi Crown Prince’s upcoming visit to the United States this month reflect Saudi Arabia’s special role in America’s strategy in the Middle East. This will be Mohammed bin Salman’s first visit to the United States since 2018. The anticipated cementing of security relations between the two nations could present opportunities for strengthening the pro-American camp in the Middle East. However, it also harbors the key risk of making a peace agreement with Israel in exchange for security and financial considerations from the U.S. less attractive. It is noteworthy that, since the war broke out, Saudi Arabia has repeatedly declared its willingness to advance normalization with Israel; however, the Saudi monarchy has conditioned such a development on ending the war and promoting the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Israeli Policy Recommendations

Returning all fallen hostages as a key component in Israeli society’s rehabilitation.
Translating military accomplishments into political steps. To do so, a strategy must be formed to weaken Hamas as the basis of its expulsion from Gaza by establishing an alternative Palestinian form of regime that will be supported by the Arab states with the help of the United States. Israel should also object to any Turkish and Qatari involvement in the rebuilding of Gaza, and especially to allowing them to have permanent presence there. At the same time, Israel should restart its strategic relations with Egypt and Jordan, look into ways of incorporating them in the Gaza Strip rehabilitation processes, while avoiding unilateral steps vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority that could project directly onto the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.
By way of addressing the Iranian threat, an intelligence and operative response is required, the purpose of which would be to rebuild its capabilities, reestablish the ring of fire, and reposition itself as a nuclear threshold state. It is our understanding that the time has come to utilize the internal distress in Iran, and the detriment caused to the Islamic Republic’s offensive capabilities, to formulate an action plan for the destabilization of the murderous regime in Tehran.
Vis-à-vis the United States, an additional upgrade is required in the strategic alliance in the form of preserving the IDF’s qualitative military edge while deepening the strategic security and military coordination between the two countries. The end of the war in Gaza should be simultaneously utilized to formulate a multi-annual work plan to contend with the severe harm caused to Israel’s status among the American public, particularly among supporters of the Democratic Party, and the Young Republicans.

Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Executive Director: Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead

Editted by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.

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