Operation Roaring Lion - Initial Insights
March, 2026
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| Photo: IDF Spokesperson's Unit |
Operation Roaring Lion, Israel’s campaign in Iran alongside the one launched by the United States and known as Operation Epic Fury, will go down in military history as one of Israel’s most wondrous operations in view of its air force’s remarkable performance and top-notch intelligence capabilities.
The killing of the Iranian regime’s seniormost leaders is an extraordinarily important achievement. It joins the chain of attacks against the Axis of Evil’s top leadership in the past two years, as well as the significant detriment caused to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, missile project, and air defense capabilities.
The operation is still ongoing; however, we can already point to ten initial insights:
- The stellar opening strike, coupled with the deep operative strategic cooperation with the United States, highly contribute to the demonstration of Israel’s military capabilities and overall strategic might as a regional power and strong U.S. ally.
- Iran’s ability to recover, certainly in upcoming years, has been significantly impacted, as were its nuclear and missile capabilities, which serve as a precondition for the realization of the Ayatollah regime’s radical ideological vision for Israel’s annihilation. A decline in Iran’s ability to launch missiles is already apparent, and likely to become more pronounced as the war continues, and the detriment caused to launchers deepens.
- The regime is currently at its weakest point, domestically and outwardly, since the Islamic revolution 47 years ago and is, in fact, fighting for its survival.
- Israel has no real alternative to its strategic collaborations with the Arab states under U.S. leadership. Once again, the ties with these countries have proven essential in the overall contention with all aspects of the threat posed by Iran.
- Iran has become isolated in the regional arena. Iran’s attacks against the Gulf states and Jordan, as well as the British base in Cyprus, designed, inter alia, to increase the internal U.S. pressure and deter the Trump Administration from proceeding with the campaign for fear of a large-scale regional war, seem to have been a strategic error. In fact, this Iranian strategy has led to the opposite effect, whereby the moderate Arab states are joining forces against it. This development comes on top of a series of strategic blunders made by the Islamic Republic’s regime, chief among which are the path it chose when negotiating with the U.S. administration and its failure to understand President Trump.
- The proxy perception that Iran has built in recent decades while investing billions of dollars has begun to unravel. Although Hizballah did contribute to the war in the form of rocket and drone launching, its ability to embark on a large-scale campaign is nevertheless more limited than before, certainly compared to the tremendous capabilities it had prior to October 7. Hizballah is also under growing domestic distress due to the considerable pressure exerted by the Lebanese government led by President Joseph Aoun to exhibit restraint and refrain from dragging Lebanon into a large-scale war that would lead to casualties as well as a vast destruction of infrastructure.
- Russia and China have once again shown themselves to be feeble sources of support. They do not provide Iran with any substantial backing, politically or militarily, and certainly provide no deterrence against Israel and the United States. Moreover, the United States and Israel’s western weapons and technologies far outweigh the eastern ones employed by Russia and Iran.
- Despite the blows sustained by Iran, the regime clearly remains standing. This current state of affairs was assisted in part by the ruthless and methodical oppression of the opposition as was proven during the demonstrations last January, but can also be attributed to the organized power transition mechanisms in place for scenarios such as the death of the supreme leader and other senior position holders. Within a very short time, and in accordance with the Iranian constitution, a replacement leadership has been appointed to head the Islamic Republic until a new leader is elected, possibly in the next few days. Successors have also been appointed for the senior security officials taken out.
- President Trump launched Operation Epic Fury despite a lack of public support and, in fact, in the absence of congressional approval. Moreover, he is concerned about becoming tangled up and drawn into a prolonged campaign, similar to those fought previously in Iraq and Afghanistan, a large number of casualties to U.S. forces (six have been killed to date), and the possible effects on the price of oil (that has already soared to 80 dollars per barrel) as the midterm elections draw near this coming November. Consequently, President Trump is likely to strive for as short a campaign as possible, which he claims will last between four and five weeks, and will certainly not get dragged into a prolonged war lasting months and months.
- The admirable actions of the Israeli defense forces once again reiterate the importance of social cohesion and IDF service as key aspects of maintaining Israel’s underlying values as a Jewish, democratic, and liberal state.
Recommendations
Israel is facing a historical opportunity to devastate the murderous Iranian regime. To do so, Israel should utilize the window of opportunity provided by the operation in upcoming weeks to deepen the damage to Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructures, while taking further steps to weaken its regime. Hopefully, these will create the conditions for renewed mass protests that, in turn, will lead to the destabilization and perhaps even collapse of the regime, as the Iranian public will realize that, under the current state of affairs, Iran cannot provide any real solution to the severe social and economic issues with which it is grappling.
At the same time, Hizballah’s decision to join the war serves as an opportunity for Israel to thoroughly decimate this terror organization’s infrastructures and capabilities across Lebanon, including in Dahieh, the Beqaa Valley, and other areas. This would enable the safe return of residents living in northern Israel to their homes, as well as the rebuilding of the entire area.
As a complementary step, Israel should seize this opportunity to deepen its strategic ties with the Arab states, primarily in an effort to advance the trailblazing normalization agreement with Saudi Arabia. Such a development would have tremendous importance in future stages of the war with Iran, as well as in the rebuilding processes in Gaza, and the promotion of shared steps toward the disarming of Hamas.
Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Executive Director: Maj. Gen. (res.) Amos Gilead
Editted by Dr. Shay Har-Zvi, Senior Fellow, Institute for Policy and Strategy (IPS), Reichman University.
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