Strategic Situation Report: Leadership Decisions Required

_{As we welcome the new Jewish year in, it is clear that the IDF and security forces’ remarkable military achievements on all fronts remain true. As a result, for the time being, immediate military threats previously posed against the State of Israel have been removed. Nevertheless, Israel has yet to inflict a political defeat on any of those fronts. Our enemies, primarily Iran, Hizballah, and Hamas, remain intact, and are currently engaged in rebuilding themselves in an effort to realize their radical ideology whereby Israel must be destroyed when the time comes.}

_{Especially severe is the situation on the ground in Judaea and Samaria. There is great concern that locals will turn to violence during the Jewish High Holidays – a time that is explosive as it is. A combination of reasons could lead to such an outcome, first among which is the soaring violence perpetrated by Jewish rioters and terrorists against Palestinians in view of the Israeli government’s feebleness. In the regional arena, processes designed to form an Arab-Islamic front, as manifest in the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey, have been accelerated. At the same time, detriment has been caused to Israel’s ties with Jordan and Egypt, while the possibility of normalization with Saudi Arabia has dissipated. A dangerous increase in hostility between Israel and Turkey is also being noted.}

_{Be all that as it may, President Trump is determined, at least in the weeks leading up to the midterm elections, to keep wars in the region stagnant. To this end, he is going as far as to impose tough restrictions on the IDF’s use of force on all fronts, while fostering a policy of exerting heavy financial pressure on Iran. In the background, support for Israel continues to diminish amid the American public, and there is growing concern in Israel over the potential dent in the IDF’s qualitative military edge (QME).}

Is the Iranian Regime’s Survival at Risk?

_{The Iranian regime, led by the Revolutionary Guards, is exhibiting strong determination and self-esteem to withstand this U.S. campaign. Iran seeks to target American bases and assets in the region and Gulf states in an effort to ensure the regime’s survival as an overarching goal, while deterring the United States from renewing the war, and keeping the Strait of Hormuz as a strategic bargaining chip. To this must be added the Houthi takeover of Bab al-Mandab.}

_{President Trump is choosing to focus on a continued naval blockade and opening the straits to passing ships. He is therefore exacerbating the direct and secondary sanctions imposed on Iran. However, at present, no significant negotiations are being held on core issues, namely the nuclear and SSM programs, as well as the ongoing support of Iranian proxies across the Middle East. Thus, special attention should be given to the possibility that the radical regime in Tehran may seek to obtain a nuclear weapon down the line as a force multiplier of overall regional power, and as insurance against future attacks.}

_{As time goes by, the Trump Administration’s economic pressure further deepens the harsh financial distress in Iran. However, it seems that there is no tangible threat to the regime’s stability for the time being, in view of the brutal means employed to deter the masses from protesting, and their fear of the kind of massacres seen in January of this year.}

_{A new shaper with increasing strength is the shift in the American attitude toward Israel from support for its military actions across the board to significant sanctions being imposed on the IDF’s freedom of action on all fronts. This change stems directly from the political vacuum formed due to the absence of Israeli policy on ending the multifrontal war, and prolonged fighting. President Trump has decided to minimize military conflicts as much as possible to avoid getting dragged into direct intense military involvement, and allow him the freedom to advance his transactional political vision for the Middle East.}

Hizballah and Hamas - Survival

_{As a strategy, Hamas is determined to keep surviving in Gaza as the basis for its future recovery, while remaining steadfast in its murderous ideology toward Israel. This perspective explains Hamas’ actions in support of a civil administration, and its show of willingness to be partly disarmed. It means that, despite the massacre and atrocities of October 7, Hamas continues to survive, forms plans for military and political recoveries, and tightens its control over the local population amounting to 2 million Palestinians west of the Yellow Line.}

_{Similarly, Hizballah seems determined to maintain its military capabilities. In spite of President Joseph Aoun’s best intentions, the Lebanese government lacks the ability to take action against this terror organization. In fact, at this time, it is incapable of defeating Hizballah, and the latter continues to enjoy the political, economic, and military support provided by Iran.}

Is Judea and Samaria on the Verge of Escalation?

_{Judaea and Samaria are evolving into a significant threat to Israel, although, at present, illusive quiet is maintained on the streets due to the IDF and ISA’s successful operations as well as the local Palestinian population’s indifference.}

_{The evolving explosiveness stems from a combination of factors - a severe financial crisis that negatively impacts the Palestinian Authority’s ability to pay salaries even to its own security apparatuses; the absence of political prospects and growing sense of frustration; the Palestinian Authority’s partial governability; the Israeli government’s actions designed to change the reality on the ground, and soaring Jewish terrorism against Palestinians, all of which could prompt the Palestinian population to resort to violence.}

_{Moreover, the Israeli government’s feeble actions against Jewish terrorism, alongside its attempts at annexation and construction (E1) could lead to a political avalanche and violent outbreak. Such a potential development could have direct implications on Jordan’s internal stability as well, for it is a central pillar in Israel’s national security.}

New Axes are Forming in the Middle East

_{Alongside the complex security situation described, regional processes that pose a challenge to Israel are underway. The normalization process with Saudi Arabia has screeched to a halt, primarily due to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s demand to be presented with a peace process and clear plan for the establishment of a Palestinian state. It is noteworthy that if normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia progresses, it could alter regional architecture, while enhancing Israel’s status and capabilities. It is no wonder that, according to Sinwar himself, one of the main reasons for the murderous terror attack was to curb the normalization process.}

_{At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the United States are upgrading their own bilateral ties, inter alia on issues that could pose a challenge for Israel. The two countries have signed a series of military agreements, and President Trump has even expressed his willingness to sell the Saudis his advanced F35 fighter jet. Furthermore, the two signed an agreement for the development of a civil nuclear program on Saudi soil, which could include the establishment of onsite enrichment capabilities. If this indeed happens, the foundations may be laid for the development of a military nuclear program in Saudi Arabia, especially in light of the Saudi Crown Prince’s statements whereby if Iran obtains nuclear weapons, it too will do so. In all likelihood, other countries in the region, primarily Turkey and Egypt, will also strive to develop a military nuclear program, effectively kicking off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East.}

_{Saudi Arabia is also pursuing the expansion of its collaborations with Arab and Muslim states. Following the defense agreement signed with Pakistan in late 2025, Saudi Arabia signed an agreement with Pakistan and Turkey to form a defense alliance (the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement). One of the possible outcomes of this agreement is the ability to challenge Israel’s status and activity in the region.}

Recommendations

_{Israel should, first and foremost, form an overall strategy designed to develop political alternatives that will utilize its military accomplishments, inter alia in light of the fact that the IDF’s freedom of action is currently limited. In practical terms, the war objectives must be realigned with those set by the U.S. administration, and shared interests defined for war-ending scenarios. It is therefore recommended that Israel support Washington’s strategy of an economic blockade on Iran, as well as the exacerbation of sanctions imposed on it, while rebuilding and restoring military capabilities for war renewal scenarios. The matter of a nuclear weapon must be prioritized, and a current plan formed to multidimensionally address it, particularly in the event of a future Iranian attempt to break out to a nuclear weapon.}

_{In Judaea and Samaria, Israel must exercise its responsibility and power against the soaring Jewish terrorism to prevent a political and security volcano from erupting. The IDF and security forces should keep up their determined and successful thwarting of Palestinian terrorism. Vis-à-vis Gaza, crushing Hamas rule and disarming it must be a key objective, while employing a wide range of diplomatic and military means in close coordination with the Trump Administration.}

_{In Lebanon, seeing as the current policy only partially addresses the need to minimize the threats posed by Hizballah, Israel should form an updated plan for expelling and disarming Hizballah as a key component in a wider campaign against the threat posed by Iran. At the same time, the public conflict with Turkey should be dialed down, while attempting to ease the hostility and tension with the help of the United States and other countries. Israel should make good use of the opportunity it has been given to advance defense and non-belligerence agreements with the Syrian regime.}