פרופ' אלכס מינץ

בית ספר לאודר לממשל, דיפלומטיה ואסטרטגיה Ph.D., Northwestern University

משנה לנשיא לעניינים אקדמיים לשעבר; דיקן בית הספר לשעבר

  • פרופ' אלכס מינץ, ראש המעבדה לקבלת החלטות ממוחשבת. לשעבר, נשיא האגודה הישראלית למדע המדינה. מכהן גם כראש התוכנית לפסיכולוגיה פוליטית וקבלת-החלטות (POP-DM) והמעבדה לקבלת החלטות דיגיטלית. פרופ' מינץ שימש כיו"ר משותף של ועדת ההיגוי לפרויקט "תקווה ישראלית – לקראת סדר ישראלי חדש", בברכת נשיא המדינה. בעברו כיהן כראש המכון למדיניות ואסטרטגיה ,(IPS) עמד בראש כנס הרצליה ושימש כדיקאן בית ספר לאודר לממשל, דיפלומטיה ואסטרטגיה (בין השנים 2008-2014). הקים ועמד בראש תכנית התואר השני בממשל בבינתחומי.
    פרופ' מינץ הינו חוקר בעל שם עולמי שזכה בפרסים היוקרתיים ביותר בעולם על מחקריו האקדמיים בקבלת החלטות בממשל ובפוליטיקה, בניטור החלטות ממוחשב, בפסיכולוגיה פוליטית, ובניתוח מדיניות חוץ.

    פרופ' מינץ שימש כעורך ראשי של כתב העת הבינלאומי Political Psychology ומשמש כעורך, סגן עורך או חבר מערכת בעשרה כתבי עת בינלאומיים. שימש כעורך סדרת הספרים של הוצאת אוניברסיטת שיקגו היוקרתית במנהיגות וקבלת החלטות בזירה הגלובלית.
    פרופ' מינץ הוא חתן פרס החוקר הבכיר המצטיין בעולם Distinguished Scholar Award בניתוחי מדיניות חוץ מטעם האגודה הבינלאומית ליחסים בינלאומיים, וחתן פרס דויטש מטעם האגודה הבינלאומית ללימודים בינלאומיים עבור התרומה החשובה בעולם של חוקר עד גיל 40 לחקר היחסים הבינלאומים.
    הוא משמש כנשיא הסניף הישראלי של ארגון אקדמי בינלאומי המורכב מ-13 חתני פרס נובל.

    ב-2016 יצא לאור ספרו, על קבלת החלטות בממשל האמריקאי על כניסה ויציאה למלחמות: באפגניסטן, עירק, אירן, סוריה, ודאע"ש, בהוצאת אוניברסיטת סטנפורד היוקרתית (עם קרלי ווין). הספר זכה ב-2017 בפרס אלכסנדר ג'ורג' עבור הספר הטוב בעולם בפסיכולוגיה פוליטית. ספרו על קבלת החלטות במדיניות חוץ (אותו כתב עם פרופ' דה-רואן) התפרסם ב-2010 בהוצאת אוניברסיטת קיימברידג'. כמו כן פרסם או ערך תשעה ספרים אחרים.

  • EDITOR OF SPECIAL ISSUES OF JOURNALS:Editor Of Special 


    Editor: Symposium on Experimental Research in International Relations (with R. McDermott), International Studies Quarterly, June 2011 

    Editor of a Forum on Behavioral International Relations, International Studies Review, 2007 

    Editor of a Special Issue of the Journal of Conflict Resolution on the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making, February 2004.

    Editor of Policy and the Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making, A Symposium International Studies Perspectives 2005 

    Editor: Symposium in Policy Studies Review with Gideon Doron).


    Refereed Papers


     Public Policy Perspective on Group Decision Making Dynamics in Foreign Policy. Policy Studies Journal, 2018, 46(S1), S69-S90 (with Kasey Barr).  
    From Groupthink to Polythink in the Yom Kippur War Decisions of 1973. European Review of International Studies, 2018, 5(1), 48-66 (with Itai Schneiderman)  
    Russia’s Decision to Pursue Syria’s Chemical Disarmament in 2013: A Poliheuristic Perspective. International Journal of Peace Economics and Peace Science, 1(2), 1-16, 2018 (with Eldad Tal-Shir).  

    The Polythink Syndrome and Elite Group Decision Making. Advances in Political Psychology, supplementary issue of Political Psychology, January 2016 (with Carly Political Psychology: Political Psychology, June 2015 (with Eli Mograbi). 
    Triads in International Relations: The Effect of Superpower Aid, Trade, and Arms Transfers on Conflict in the Middle East. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy (with Uk Heo, 2014)  
    Policy Perspectives on National Security and Foreign Policy, Policy Studies Journal, 2013 (with Steven B. Redd)  
    The Logic of Terrorist Leaders’ Decisions, Perspectives on Terrorism, 2013 (with John Tyson Chatagnier and Yair Samban)  
    Experimental Approaches to International Relations. International Studies Quarterly, June 2011 (with McDermott and Yang).  
    Methodological Issues in Studying Suicide Terrorism, Political Psychology, 2009 (with David Brule)  
    Why Behavioral IR? International Studies Review, 2008  
    Can We Generalize from Student Experiments to the Real World in Military Affairs, Political Science and International Relations? Journal of Conflict Resolution, October 2006 (with S. Redd and A. Vedlitz)  
    Tactical Prevention of Suicide Terrorism in Israel 2006. Interfaces (an Operations Research journal) (with Edward Kaplan and S. Mishal). November 2006.  
    What Happened to Suicide Bombings in Israel: Evidence from a Terror Stock Model (with E. Kaplan, S. Mishal and C. Samban). Studies in Conflict and Terrorism February 2005  
    Applied Decision Analysis: Utilizing Poliheuristic Theory to Explain and Predict Foreign Policy and National Security Decisions. International Studies Perspectives 2005  
    How Do Leaders Make Decisions? A . Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2004.  
    Foreign Policy Decision Making in Familiar and Unfamiliar Settings: An Experimental Study of High-Ranking Military Officers. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2004.  
    Framing Effects in International Relations (with S. Redd) Synthese, 2003  
    The Effect of Dynamic and Static Choice Sets on Political Decision Making: An Analysis Utilizing the Decision Board Platform. American Political Science Review September 1997 (with N. Geva, S. Redd and A. Carnes).  
    Theories of Budgetary Tradeoffs. Public Budgeting and Financial Management 1997 (with R. Stevenson).  
    Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in The Middle East: The Indirect Link. Journal of Peace Research 1995 (with M.D. Ward, J. Cohen and R. Stevenson).  
    Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth and the "Peace Dividend": A Longitudinal Analysis of 103 Countries. Journal of Conflict Resolution June 1995 (with R. Stevenson).  
    The Noncompensatory Principle of Coalition Formation. Journal of Theoretical Politics 1995.  
    Mathematical Models of Foreign Policy Decision Making: Compensatory vs. Noncompensatory. Synthese 1994 (with N. Geva and K. DeRouen).  
    Why Don't Democracies Fight Each Other? An Experimental Study. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1993 (with N. Geva).  
    The Decision to Attack Iraq: A Noncompensatory Theory of Decision Making. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1993. Reprinted in G. Goertz and H. Starr. Necessary Conditions. Rowman Littlefield 2003.  
    The Political Incentive Explanation of Democratic Peace: Evidence from Experimental Research. International Interactions 1993 (with N. Geva and K. DeRouen).  
    The Experimental Analysis of the Conflict Processes Project: Preliminary Findings. International Studies Notes 1993 (with N.Geva)  
    Conceptual and Methodological Issues in Guns-Butter Research. Policy Studies Review 1992 (with C. Huang).  
    Guns vs. Butter: The Indirect Link. American Journal of Political Science 1991 (with C. Huang).  
    Defense Spending and Economic Growth: The Externality Effect. Defence Economics 1991 (with C.Huang)  
    Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth and the Peace Dividend. American Political Science Review 1990 (with C. Huang).  
    The Political Economy of Military Spending in Israel. American Political Science Review 1989 (with M. Ward).  
    The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1984. Western Political Quarterly 1988 (with M. Ward)  
    Guns vs. Butter: A Disaggregated Analysis. American Political Science Review 1988.  
    The Conditional Probability Analysis of International Events Data. American Journal of Political Science 1988 (with P. Schrodt).  
    Electoral Cycles and Defense Spending. Comparative Political Studies 1988  
    The Evolution of Israel's Military Expenditures: 1960-1984. Western Political Quarterly 1988 (with M. Ward)  
    Electoral Cycles and Defense Spending. Comparative Political Studies 1988  
    Dynamics of Military Spending in Israel: A Computer Simulation. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1987 (with M. Ward).  
    Arms Imports as an Action-Reaction Process: An Empirical Study of Six Pairs of Developing Nations. International Interactions 1986  
    The Military-Industrial Complex: American Concepts and Israeli Realities. Journal of Conflict Resolution 1985. Reprinted in B.M Russett, H. Starr and R. Stoll (eds.), Choices in World Politics. Freeman 1989.  
    Arms Exports as an Action-Reaction Process. Jerusalem Journal of International Relations 1986  
    Arms Production in Israel: Civilianization of the Military or Militarization of Society? Jerusalem Quarterly 1986  
    Military-Industrial Linkages in Israel. Armed Forces and Society 1985  
    Military Keynesianism in the United States: 1949-1976: Disaggregating Military Expenditures and Their Determination. American Journal of Sociology 1984 (with A. Hicks).  
    The Military-Industrial Complex: The Israeli Case. Journal of Strategic Studies 1983

    A Validation Study of Computer Simulation Models. Conflict Management and Peace Science 1983

    Methodological and Theoretical Oversight in Military Keynesianism: Comment. American Journal of Sociology 1986 (with A. Hicks)  
    Defense Budgeting in the U.S.: An Empirical Explanation of Non-Incremental Procurement Spending. State, Government and International Relations 1983. (Hebrew).  


    Contributions to Handbooks and Encyclopedia


    Poliheuristic Theory, Applied Decision Analysis and Group Decision Making. In the Oxford Encyclopedia of Political Decision Making (with J. T. Chatagnier), Oxford University Press, 2020.  

    The Poliheuristic Theory of Decision in Crisis Situations. In Oxford Encyclopedia of Crisis Analysis (with I. Hakman), (forthcoming), Oxford University Press.  
    Did Groupthink or Polythink Derail the 2016 Raqqa Offensive? The Impact of Group Dynamics on Strategic and Tactical Decision Making (with K. Barr), 2019. In Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science. Oxford University Press.  
    Decision Making Theories in Foreign Policy Analysis (with A. Sofrin), Oxford Handbook of Leadership, Oxford University Press, 2017.  
    From Groupthink to Polythink: U.S. Decisions in Iraq, Handbook of Conflict Resolution (Peter Coleman and Morton Deutsch, co-editors). Wiley. January 2014 (with C. Wayne)

    Political Decision Making. Oxford Handbook on Political Leadership (Paul ‘t Hart et al, editors). (with David Brule), 2014, Oxford University Press.  
    Political Psychology. International Encyclopedia of Political Communication, 2014-2015, (with Julia Elad)  
    The Poliheuristic theory of Decision Encyclopedia of the International Studies Association, 2012 (with Steven Redd).   
    Decision Making Models, Encyclopedia of the International Studies Association (with David Brule and Karl DeRouen) 2012


    Chapters


    How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Evidence from the East (with E. Tal-Shir), 2019. In How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Evidence from the East and West Part B
     
    Poliheuristic Theory in Strategic Interaction (with E. Tal-Shir). Forthcoming in Oxford Handbook of Behavioral Political Science. Oxford University Press.  
    The Decision Calculus of Khalad Mashal (with L. Freedman, T. Chatagnier and Y. Samban), 2019. In How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Evidence from the East and West Part B. Emerald.  
    Introduction: How Do Leaders Make Decisions? An Applied Decision Analysis Account (with E. Tal-Shir). 2019. In How Do Leaders Make Decisions? Evidence from the East and West, Part A, Emerald Publications.  
    The Poliheuristic Theory of Political Decision Making (with S. Redd and E. Tal-Shir). 2018. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. Oxford University Press.


    תקווה ישראלית בסדר הישראלי החדש: מחזון למציאות. המלצות לנשיא המדינה. הרצליה: יוזמת ישראליות משותפת, 2016

    מינץ, אלכס 2017. סדר לאומי חדש לישראל: סיכויים וסיכונים במציאת מורכבת ומשתנה. בתוך: א. מינץ (עורך), ישראליות משותפת: אסופת מאמרים. הרצליה, יוזמת הישראליות המשותפת.

    וייצמן, חיים ומינץ, אלכס. תקווה ישראלית: חזון או חלום? בתוך: ישראל לאן? תובנות כנס הרצליה 2016 הרצליה: המרכז הבינתחומי, יוזמת הישראליות המשותפת.


    מינץ, אלכס ואלישע, חן 2016. סקר ארבעת השבטים. הרצליה: המכון למדיניות ואסטרטגיה, המרכז הבינתחומי.

    מינץ, אלכס 2016. ארבעת השבטים, ממצא סקר בנושאים מדיניים. בתוך: א' מינץ (עורך), ישראליות משותפת: אסופת מאמרים. הרצליה: יוזמת הישראליות המשותפת. 

    מינץ אלכס, וייצמן חיים, סלונים אורי, אלישע חן ולוריה תום. 2017. מדדי ארבעת השבטים. הרצליה: יוזמת ישראליות משותפת.


    Mintz, A. and Y. Ganel. 2012. Israel’s Policy Options. In Y. Alpher (ed.), The Arab Peace Initiative, BL press
    Iran: The Day After Simulation. 2011, POPDM (with L. Terris and I. Hackman), Blank Check or Marching Orders? Public Opinion and the Presidential Use of Force. In H. Starr (ed.) Crossing Boundaries (with D. Brule), 2006.
    Being Bin Laden: Utilizing Applied Decision Analysis to Explain and Forecast Terrorists’ Decisions. In A. Pedahzur (ed), Root Causes of Suicide Terrorism. Taylor and Francis (with D. Brule and T. J. Chatagnier), 2006.
    The Method-of-Analysis Problem in International Relations. In A. Mintz and B. M. Russett (eds.), New Directions for International Relations: Confronting the Method-of-Analysis Problem. , 2005.
    E-Government in Israel and Western Democracies. In U. Reichman and D. Nachmias (eds). Israel: The Next Five Decades 2006.
    Are Leaders Susceptible to Negative Political Information? An Experimental Study of High Ranking Military Officers. In A. Mintz and B. Russett (eds.) New Directions for International Relations: Confronting the Method-of-Analysis Problem. Lexington Books, 2005.
    Experiments and Simulations. In Z. Maoz et al (eds.). Multiple Paths to Knowledge: Methodology in Conflict Management and Conflict Resolution. Lexington, 2004.
    Integrating the “Rational” and “Cognitive” in Foreign Policy Decision Making. In A. Mintz (ed.) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making. St. Martin’s/Palgrave, 2002.
    Theory Integration in Foreign Policy Analysis: Directions for Future Research. In A. Mintz (ed.) Integrating Cognitive and Rational Theories of Foreign Policy Decision Making, 2002.
    A Prospect Based Analysis of War Termination. In B. Mor and F. Harvey (eds.) Conflict Escalation and Termination (with N. Geva), Macmillan, 1998.
    Foreign Policy Decision Making: Bridging the Gap Between the Cognitive Psychology and Rational Actor Schools. In N. Geva and A. Mintz (eds.) Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997.
    Decision Making on War and Peace: Challenges for Future Research. In N. Geva and A. Mintz (eds.) Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997 (with N. Geva and S. Redd).
    The Poliheuristic Theory of Foreign Policy Decision Making. In N. Geva and A. Mintz (eds.) Decision Making on War and Peace: The Cognitive-Rational Debate. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1997(with N. Geva).
    Marketing the Peace Process in the Middle East: The Effectiveness of Thematic and Evaluative Framing in Jordan and Israel. In M. Chatterji, J. Fontanel and A. Hattori (eds.) Arms Spending, Development and Security 1996 (with N. Geva and A. Astorino).  Armament and Development: An Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Military Spending on Economic Growth in Developing Countries. In M. Chatterji (ed.) The Economics of International Security: Essays in Honor of Jan Tinbergen 1994 (with R. Stevenson).
    The Dual Economy and Arab-Israeli Use of Force. In S. Chan and A. Mintz (eds.) Defense, Welfare and Growth. London: Routledge, 1992 (with Bruce M. Russett).
    Defense Spending and Economic Performance: A Disaggregated Analysis. In S. Chan and A. Mintz (eds.) Defense, Welfare and Growth. London: Routledge, 1992 (with C. Huang and U. Heo)
    Political Economy and National Security. In A. Mintz (ed.) The Political Economy of Military Spending in the United States. London: Routledge, 1992.
    Electoral Cycles and Defense Spending: An Analysis of Quarterly Data. In A. Ross (ed.). The Political Economy of Defense. Greenwood Press, 1991 (with M.D. Ward)
    Defense Spending in Israel. In T. Sandler (ed.) The Economics of Defense Spending: An International Survey. London: Routledge, 1990 (with S. Bichler and M.D. Ward)
    Supplier’s Control and Recipient’s Autonomy: The Case of Israel. In C.I. Moon et al (eds.) The Dilemma of Third World Defense Industries. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1988 (with G. Steinberg)
    Distributional Patterns of Regional Interactions: A Test of the Poisson Process as a Null Model. In C. Cioffi-Revilla, R. L Merritt and D.A. Zinnes (eds.) Communications and Interactions in World Politics. Sage Publishers, 1987 (with P.A. Schrodt).
    A Formal Model of Defense Budgeting in Israel. In M.D. Ward (ed.) Theories, Models and Simulations in International Relations. Boulder, CO: Westview press, 1985


    AWARDS


    Lifetime Achievement Award, 2019, Israeli Political Science Association

    Alexander George Best Book award, 2017, International Society of Political Psychology

    Distinguished Scholar Award, International Studies Association (Foreign Policy Analysis Section) 2005, for distinguished accomplishments and contributions to research

    Karl Deutsch Award, 1993, given to the scholar under 40 who has made the most important contribution in the world to the study of International Relations, International Studies Association

    Aaron Wildavsky Book Award, Policy Studies Association, 1997

    Along with four Nobel Laureates in Economics (Professors Arrow, Sen, McFadden and Klein) named to the Advisory Board of the Center for Conflict Management and Prevention in Sydney, 2005


    EDITORIAL APPOINTMENTS



    Member, Editorial Board of the American Political Science Review, 2013-2017
    Editor-in-Chief, Political Psychology, 2010- 2015
    Founding co-editor, Foreign Policy Analysis, 2004-2009
    Associate Editor, Journal of Conflict Resolution, 2005-2009 
    Member, Editorial Board, International Studies Quarterly, 2009-2012
    Member, Editorial Board, International Studies Perspectives, 2009-present
    Member, Editorial Board, Foreign Policy Analysis, 2009-2016
    Member, Editorial Board, Advances in Political Psychology, 2013-present 
    Editor, The University of Chicago Press Book Series in Leadership and Decision Making in the International Arena. 2010-2012Associate Editor, Research and Politics, 2013-2018
    Member, Editorial Board, Open Political Science Journal, 2009-presentEditor, Book Series on Advances in Foreign Policy Analysis, Palgrave Macmillan 2003-2010Member, Advisory Board, Book Series, Contribution to Peace Science and Peace Economics (2014 - present)
    Member, Advisory Board, Mahatma Gandhi Institute for Conflict Prevention, India 2001-2004
    Member, Governing Board, Korean Association of Public Policy, 2003-2005
    President, Economist for Peace and Security (EPS)-Israel 1996-present
    Distinguished Associate, Martin Institute, University of Idaho 1999-2007
    Board Member, Center for Continuous Auditing, Mays Business School, TAMU, 2001-2004 Board Member, Military Studies Institute, 1986-1988
    Senior Fellow, UN Studies, Yale University, 2003-2005