Does war unify a divided country? Evidence from Israel

Dr. Clareta Treger, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem

Dr. Liron Lavi, Bar Ilan University

Prof. Elisabeth Gidengil, McGill University

Prof. Dietlind Stolle, McGill University

Can a severe external threat attenuate internal divisions and unify a divided public? This study examines how the October 7, 2023, terror attack and the ensuing Israel–Hamas war shaped social cohesion and affective polarization among Israeli Jews. Using unique pre-post panel design (N = 2,132) collected before (May–July 2023) and after (May–July 2024) the attack, we assess changes in ideology, policy preferences, affect toward social groups and affective polarization. We find a complex pattern of (de)polarization: Israeli Jews converged ideologically, with center-left respondents shifting rightward and consensus forming around opposition to peace negotiations—reflecting unity around the external threat. Yet attitudes toward judicial reform and religion–state relations remained stable. Affective polarization decreased between judicial reform supporters and opponents but increased sharply between secular and ultra-Orthodox Jews, mirroring shifts in issue salience during wartime. Individual exposure to trauma or loss did not moderate these effects. Overall, the findings reveal both integrative and divisive consequences of collective threat, highlighting the limits of depolarization in a highly polarized society

For Registration: https://www.eventer.co.il/research23122025