The stability of affective polarization in extreme circumstances: Evidence from post-October 7 Israel

Dr. Omer Yair, Reichman University

Dr. Yair Amitai, Reichman University

Prof. Amnon Cavari, Reichman University

Prof. Asif Efrat, Reichman University

Prof. Noam Gidron, Hebrew University

How persistent is affective polarization, and does it respond to extreme security threats? While one line of research suggests that war dampens internal strife, recent work has emphasized long-term continuity in partisan affect even following extreme violent events. In this paper, we provide evidence from the Israeli case, testing whether partisan animosity changed following the October 7, 2023, attack and the ensuing war in Gaza. We use both panel and cross-sectional data to examine whether affective evaluations of rival ideological groups improved once the war began. In contrast to common expectations, affective polarization proves to be highly persistent, even in the face of extreme events: measured with both thermometer and social distance items, it remains stable throughout the time period we examine. We also found minor differences between rightists and leftists, with the latter slightly improving their attitudes toward the opposition, unlike the former. We conclude by discussing the implications of our findings for the affective polarization literature

The data is collected with the assistance of the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (KAS) as part of the Program on Democratic Resilience (PDRD) at the Lauder School of Government

For Registration: https://www.eventer.co.il/research20012026