Israelis Do Not Want U.S. to Dictate Gaza War Goals  

Asif Efrat

The United States plays a pivotal role in Israel's current war in Gaza: providing weapons and military advice, blocking UN resolutions unacceptable to Israel. But how do Israelis themselves view the American role? The answer is twofold. On the one hand, Israelis recognize their country's dependence on U.S. support, and they appreciate the United States and President Biden for providing that support. On the other hand, Israelis believe the U.S. position should receive limited weight in determining the war's goals and duration. Furthermore, Israeli Jews and Arabs differ markedly in their views on the American role in the war.

These findings, from the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility at Reichman University, are based on two public opinion polls conducted by iPanel, each involving a representative sample of roughly 800 Israelis. The first poll took place during the second week of the war (October 17-19), after the United States gave Israel its full support against Hamas. In fact, President Biden visited Israel that same week and promised massive military assistance. The Jewish public’s attitude toward the United States, which is generally positive, became even more positive. According to our poll, 86% of Israeli Jews had a favorable view of the United States in October; 81% of Jews had a favorable view of President Biden (up from 48% in May 2023). Interestingly, this high level of favorability was measured among both right-wing voters and left-wing voters. In fact, President’s Biden favorability among right-wing voters skyrocketed from 26% in May to 73% in October!  

Our October poll also showed Israelis’ full awareness of the crucial American contribution to their country’s security. 87% of Israelis believe the United States is Israel’s best ally; 86% believe Israel needs U.S. support; and 77% think Israel will be worse off if the United States reduces its support.

And yet, according to our second poll on December 17-19, most Israelis do not think Israel should give a significant weight to the U.S. position in determining the war’s goals or duration. Among Jews, only 23% – mostly left-wing voters – believe Israel should take the American view into consideration when setting the war’s goals; only 15% think the American view should matter in determining the war’s duration. Note that the same poll found a very high degree of public dissatisfaction with the government. Only 32% of Jewish respondents indicated they were satisfied with the government’s performance during the war. Despite Israelis’ lack of trust in their government and the disappointment with its handling of the war, and despite the realization of Israel’s dependence on the United States, the majority of the Jewish public still wishes Israel to maintain its sovereignty and independence in shaping the course of the war.    

We should note that the views of the Arab public in Israel are the mirror image of the Jewish public’s views. The war reduced the American favorability in the eyes of Arabs: from 40% expressing a favorable attitude toward the United States in May, prior to the war, to 28% in October. At the same time, 57% of Arabs believe that the United States should play a role in determining the war’s goals, and 55% think the U.S. should have a say in setting the war’s duration. This contrasts sharply with the preference of the Jewish public for little American involvement in steering the war.

Given this preference of the Jewish public, the United States should tread carefully if it wishes to shape the course of the war. Israelis may disagree on the goals of the war, and they are far from reaching a consensus on who should rule Gaza post-war. But they do expect that the interests of the Israeli state and public will guide the Israeli government as it manages the military effort and its aftermath. If the United States is seen as dictating the government’s policies, these might lose their public legitimacy. Any American attempt at influencing Israel’s government must thus be perceived by Israelis as respecting their country’s ultimate responsibility for its own security. Such respect is also vital for the long-term endurance of the special bond between the two countries.    

Asif Efrat is an associate professor of government at Reichman University and substitute head of the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility.