Many Israelis fear that the next elections will not be fair

Omer Yair

The existence of free and fair elections is a critical feature of democracy, as a perception among the public that elections are not free and fair can lead to serious damage to public trust in the political system, and even to political violence. Thus, in both January 2021 in the United States and January 2023 in Brazil, hundreds and thousands of supporters of the presidents who lost the elections (Donald Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, respectively) stormed government buildings in an attempt to overturn the election results. Many of them did so because they believed that the elections were rigged.

And what about the elections in Israel? Unless they are conducted earlier, the next elections to the Israeli Knesset will be held at the end of October 2026. In general, although there have been several cases of fraud in recent election cycles, elections in Israel are considered to be quite fair. According to an international comparative project devoted to assessing electoral integrity, which is based on expert surveys, the elections in Israel between 2013 and 2022 received a high score: an average score of 8.7 on a scale of 1-10, with 10 meaning the highest level of electoral integrity. This score places Israel in the respectable 23rd place out of 170 countries whose electoral systems were examined in the years 2012-2024 (for comparison, the United States is in 60th place with a score of 7.3; Denmark is in first place with a score of 9.8).

Nonetheless, before, during, and after the most recent elections, there have been concerns about electoral fraud and allegations of widespread voter fraud, primarily from the Likud party and the political right. Today, there are also concerns from the opposing political side about the integrity of the elections being undermined in the run-up to, during, and after the next Knesset elections, for example, through the current coalition taking over the Central Elections Committee or by undermining the ability of Arab parties to compete in the next elections.

How widespread are concerns about election fraud among the Israeli public? In a survey we conducted at the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility at Reichman University in early June 2025, among a representative sample of 803 respondents, we examined whether the Israeli public believes that the next elections will be free and fair, and whether they believe that various actors will try to distort the election results.

The survey shows that 55% of the public agrees with the statement that the next Knesset elections will be free and fair, and a significant minority, 29%, disagrees (the rest answered that they do not know). Thus, although the majority of the public believes that the next elections will be fair, this is only a small majority. For comparison, the Israel Democracy Institute's 2023 Democracy Index found, after the last Knesset elections, that 75% of the public agreed (and 21% disagreed) that confidential, free, and fair elections are being held in Israel. Furthermore, while 66% of Jewish respondents in our survey believe that the next elections will be fair, only 31% of Arab respondents think so. In fact, almost half of the Arab respondents, 46%, disagreed with the statement that the next elections will be free and fair, which indicates significant concern among the Arab public ahead of the next elections.

We also asked respondents whether they believed that various actors would try to sway the election results. 51% of the public agreed with the claim that actors affiliated with the government would try to do so, with clear differences between voters of the current coalition (32% agreed) and voters of the current opposition (67% agreed). On the other hand, 38% of the public agreed with the opposite claim that actors affiliated with the opposition would try to sway the election results. In this case too, there were significant differences between coalition voters (53% agreed) and opposition voters (26% agreed). Finally, 38% of the public believed that foreign countries would try to sway the election results, but in this case, there were no significant differences between coalition and opposition voters or between Jewish and Arab respondents. It is clear that many Israelis are concerned about attempts by various political actors to sway the elections, even if some of these people – in particular, those who believe that the next elections will be free and fair – believe that these attempts will not succeed.

These findings indicate a significant minority of the Israeli public is concerned that the next elections will not be completely free and fair, with many in both major political camps fearing that their opponents will act dishonestly to sway the next elections. In such a tense and polarized period, it is necessary to ensure that the next election is free, fair, and secure, in a way that will safeguard and strengthen Israeli democracy and public trust in elections and public institutions.

Dr. Omer Yair is the research director and a research fellow at the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University.