Political Assassination in the Near Future? Israelis Are Skeptical 

By Asif Efrat

At the beginning of November, we mark thirty years since the assassination of Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin: the most significant politically motivated murder in the history of Israel. Today, as we approach a difficult and tension-filled election campaign, we must ask: What is the risk of another political assassination in Israel? This question becomes even more important in light of a wave of political violence in the United States recently, including two assassination attempts on Donald Trump during the presidential race and the murder of right-wing activist Charlie Kirk in September. Is Israel, recovering from a prolonged war against external enemies, also facing a similar outbreak of internal violence? 

According to most Israelis, the answer is no. This emerges from a survey by the Institute for Liberty and Responsibility conducted on October 16-19 among a representative sample of 1,208 respondents.

In this survey we asked: What is the level of risk for the murder of a politician or political activist from the right-wing camp or from the left-wing camp in the coming months? A minority of Israelis – 23% – identify a high risk for the murder of a political figure from the right. An even smaller minority – only 13% – believe there is a high risk for the murder of a political figure from the left. This means that, in the current political reality, Israelis do not identify a real danger of political assassination. It should be noted that this assessment of the risk of political murder is significantly lower than the assessment Israelis held just five years ago. In a survey by the Israel Democracy Institute in 2020, about 45% of Israelis believed that political murder was within the realm of possibility.

According to our survey, both right-wing voters and center-left voters believe that the risk of political assassination is low; however, there is a significant difference between them. Right-wing voters are more concerned about the murder of a right-wing figure compared to a left-wing figure: 37% of them believe there is a risk of murdering a right-wing figure, and only 7% identify danger for murdering a left-wing figure. Center-left voters, on the other hand, are more concerned about the murder of a left-wing figure: 23% of them believe there is a murder threat to a left-wing figure; only 13% express significant concern about the possible murder of a right-wing figure. This difference in risk assessment reflects the tendency of each political camp to think positively about itself and identify the opposing political camp as a threat. Rightists see greater danger from the left; leftists see a more serious danger from the right.

But how can we explain the public feeling of a lack of significant risk for murder? It's possible that after two painful years of killing in war, Israelis cannot and do not want to contemplate killing on political grounds. Perhaps we are seeing here the influence of the 2023 protest against the judicial reform: a protest that demonstrated that Israel can go through an intense internal conflict without sliding into violence and murder. It's also possible that in the current political climate – before the election campaign has begun – Israelis still do not identify an incitement discourse that could ignite violence.

We should hope that the public assessment of low risk for political murder is indeed correct and is not merely wishful thinking. However, this assessment must not encourage complacency. On the 30th anniversary of Rabin's assassination, we must remember: The next assassin, like Yigal Amir, may lurk around the corner without arousing suspicion. The next assassin, like Yigal Amir, may dramatically change the course of the State of Israel. We must not take the danger lightly, and everything must be done to prevent it from materializing. In a democracy, public discourse can be intense and loud, but it must not become violent.

Professor Asif Efrat is a senior research fellow at the Institute for Freedom and Responsibility at Reichman University